Source: Annual Congress 2009 - Prognosis and comorbidities in COPD
Disease area: Airway diseases

Abstract

Background: COPD is a leading cause of mortality worldwide with increasing incidence.
Objective: to identify clinical, physiological and radiological predictors of mortality in smokers with COPD.
Material & methods: patients who have participated in 3 clinical trials were included in this study. In these trials, patients were evaluated with lung function tests and quantitative computed tomography (15^th percentile density [PD15] and relative area of emphysema < -910 HU [RA-910]). In May 2008, the status of the patients was examined in the Danish Civil Registration system. The date of death was noticed in case of death. Data were analysed using Cox proportional hazard regression model first in a univariate model then in a stepwise multivariate model.
Results: a total of 208 smokers with moderate to severe COPD were followed for a period of 1 to 93 months. During this period 57 patients died. The 25^th quartile survival time was 77.6 months, whereas the median survival time could not be estimated. The table shows the significance of the different mortality predictors in a univariate Cox regression model. In a multivariate model with a stepwise selection, age (p=0.002), packyears (p=0.01) and diffusion capacity (p=0.046) emerged as significant predictors of mortality.

Characteristic	p-value
Age	<0.0001
Sex	0.88
Body mass index	0.4
Packyears	0.0008
FEV1	0.002
Residual volume	0.07
Diffusion capacity	0.002
PD15	0.07
RA-910	0.06

Predictors of mortality in a univariate Cox regression analysis

Conclusion: In this population of smokers with moderate to severe COPD, age, packyears and diffusion capacity were the most important predictors of mortality.

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Citations should be made in the following way:
S. B. Shaker, A. Dirksen (Copenhagen, Denmark). Predictors of mortality in COPD. Eur Respir J 2009; 34: Suppl. 53, 512

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