Source: International Congress 2015 – Lung function: exploring the boundaries of the respiratory system
Disease area: Airway diseases

Abstract

The aim of the research was to identify predictors of progression of COPD and the risk of unfavorable outcome (death), as well as the development of integrative index to assess the prognosis of COPD.Materials and methods: We assessed clinical and functional parameters in 110 patients, including body mass index (BMI), lung function (ERF), the results of pulse oximetry, blood gases, determination of exercise tolerance (6 minute walk test - 6 MSHT).Results: The analysis allowed to identify predictors of unfavorable outcome in patients with COPD: age ³60 years, BMI<18, the duration of smoking>40 years, smoking intensity ³50 pack-years, duration of dyspnea> 10 years, FEV1 <30 % , diaphragm fatigue index <10, PO2 <55 mm Hg, or SaO2£88% PCO2>50 mmHg, the result of a 6-MSHT <150 m. The most important predictors are 6 markers: the severity of obstruction with FEV1 <30%, increase the risk of deterioration in 4.19 times; hypoxemia less than 55 mmHg (8 times), hypercapnia (8 times), the diaphragm fatigue index < 10 (at 4.47 times), reduced body mass index< 18 (3.33 times ) and 6-MSHT result < 150 m (4.21 times).Index of unfavorable outcome was developed: 0-4 points - lower index of unfavorable outcome, 5-8 points - moderate index, 9-11 points - high-risk points and more than 12 - very high risk. The highest level of risk in 41.4% of patients with severe COPD and the lowest - in 63.6% of patients with COPD medium-severe stage of the disease.Thus, integrative index of unfavorable outcome more than 12 points, coupled with unfavorable prognosis for patients. This complex estimation of unfavorable outcome of COPD allows us to expect of individual prognosis and clinical outcome for each patient.


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Citations should be made in the following way:
Kamola Ubaydullaeva (Tashkent, Uzbekistan), Kamola Ubaydullaeva. Predictors of progression and risk of unfavorable outcome of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Eur Respir J 2015; 46: Suppl. 59, 954

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